The answer to this question comes down to your confidence level and risk tolerance. If your analysis tells you a 6.5-point underdog stands a good chance of winning the game outright, bet the moneyline. However, if you think that 6.5-point underdog will be competitive but likely not win, bet the point spread.

With win, place, and show betting, you have a much better chance of getting something back for your original wager. It's simple math, but it's much more likely for a single horse to finish where predicted than for multiple horses to do the same.